MODELING THE POTENTIAL CLIMATIC SUITABILITY OF ANOPHELES PSEUDOPUNCTIPENNIS, THE HISTORICAL VECTOR OF MALARIA IN ARGENTINA

ABSTRACT: Anopheles pseudopunctipennis is one of the most important malaria vectors in the Americas and historically contributed to transmission in northwestern Argentina. Although Argentina was certified malaria-free in 2019, surveillance of vector populations remains relevant to prevent reintroduction. We used ecological niche models to identify climatically suitable areas for An. pseudopunctipennis in Argentina, using occurrence records and bioclimatic variables from WorldClim 2.1. Records were compiled from the literature, biodiversity databases, and personal collections, and were filtered to remove duplicates, records lacking reliable coordinates, and records with high geographic uncertainty. To reduce the effect of clustered sampling on model calibration, occurrences were spatially thinned at 5 km. Models were calibrated with MaxEnt in the northwestern accessible area of the species in Argentina, testing combinations of feature classes and regularization multipliers. Candidate models were evaluated using omission rate, validation Area Under the Curve, and Akaike Information Criterion with Correction. After filtering, 312 records from 287 localities were retained. The best-supported model used LQHP features with regularization multiplier 1.0 and showed an average 10% omission rate of 0.11, validation AUC of 0.83, and the lowest AICc among candidate models (ΔAICc = 0). Suitable conditions were concentrated mainly in northwestern Argentina, especially in Jujuy, Salta, Tucumán, and Catamarca, with additional suitable areas in parts of Santiago del Estero, San Juan, San Luis, Córdoba, Formosa, and Chaco. These results provide a first approximation of climatically suitable areas for An. pseudopunctipennis in Argentina and may support vector surveillance in a country where malaria has been eliminated but remains at risk of reintroduction.